Marvin Mims Jr.
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 47.5
- Implied team total
- 22.3
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 46%
24 yrs · 5′11″, 182 lb · Oklahoma · 2023 rd 2 pk 63
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 7.6 | 0.0 – 15.1 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 23.5 | 0.0 – 53.6 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 2.9 | 0.0 – 5.1 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 16.4 | 3.9 – 32.5 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 27.4 | 0.0 – 69.9 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 14.0% | no range | +615 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 1.8% | no range | +5414 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 4.7 | 4.0 | 51.7 | 0.33 | 14% | 0.34 | – | 50% | 11.2 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 35.0 | 0.20 | 13% | 0.22 | 1.00 | 46% | 8.1 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 24.3 | 0.10 | 10% | 0.18 | 0.67 | 38% | 6.6 |
| 2026 season | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0% | 0.00 | – | 18% | 0.0 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | – | 18% | 0 |
| 2025 | 15 | 51 | 37 | 322 | 1 | 10% | 3 | 3 | 37% | 95 |
| 2024 | 17 | 52 | 39 | 503 | 6 | 10% | 3 | 6 | 27% | 130 |
| 2023 | 16 | 33 | 22 | 377 | 1 | 7% | 3 | 1 | 38% | 75 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
4 injury entries across 3 seasons · 3 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often foot
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 51 | 86% | 1.3 | +0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 51 | 80% | 24.9 | +1.0 |
| Rush + rec yards | 51 | 78% | 25.3 | +2.6 |
| Anytime TD | 51 | 13% vs 16% | 0.2 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 51 | 4% vs 4% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 42 | 71% | 15.5 | +1.2 |
| Longest rush | 27 | 81% | 5.3 | +1.5 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 1 |  KC | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 21 |  NE | 66% | 6 | 4 | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  BUF | 65% | 8 | 8 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  LAC | 32% | 3 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 | KC | 47% | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  JAX | 32% | 3 | 3 | 26 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  GB | 31% | 6 | 4 | 29 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  LV | 27% | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  WAS | 33% | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 | KC | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |