Zay Flowers
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 42.5
- Implied team total
- 27.0
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 63%
26 yrs · 5′9″, 183 lb · Boston College · 2023 rd 1 pk 22
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 7.4 | 0.0 – 17.9 | – | Differs from form |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 68.4 | 15.8 – 114.7 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 4.4 | 1.0 – 7.7 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 26.2 | 9.0 – 47.4 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 80.3 | 17.5 – 131.8 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 35.1% | no range | +185 | Differs from form |
| First TD scorer | 8.7% | no range | +1050 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 124.0 | 1.00 | 30% | 0.73 | 2.00 | 53% | 23.7 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 97.2 | 0.80 | 30% | 0.71 | 1.67 | 63% | 21.1 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 82.0 | 0.50 | 30% | 0.72 | 1.33 | 76% | 16.6 |
| 2026 season | 2 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 117.0 | 0.50 | 28% | 0.64 | 2.00 | 31% | 20.7 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 234 | 1 | 28% | 1 | 2 | 31% | 41 |
| 2025 | 17 | 118 | 86 | 1,211 | 5 | 30% | 12 | 12 | 86% | 243 |
| 2024 | 17 | 116 | 74 | 1,059 | 4 | 25% | 10 | 8 | 75% | 210 |
| 2023 | 16 | 108 | 77 | 858 | 5 | 24% | 8 | 16 | 84% | 206 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
8 injury entries across 4 seasons · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often hamstring
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 52 | 88% | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 52 | 65% | 32.6 | +0.7 |
| Rush + rec yards | 52 | 67% | 31.8 | +1.7 |
| Anytime TD | 52 | 32% vs 27% | 0.4 | -0.1 |
| Longest reception | 52 | 69% | 13.3 | +1.7 |
| First TD scorer | 52 | 8% vs 6% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest rush | 24 | 83% | 5.9 | +0.6 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  DAL | 33% | 6 | 5 | 84 | 1 | 20 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  IND | 29% | 6 | 5 | 150 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  PIT | 98% | 6 | 4 | 138 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  GB | 68% | 5 | 4 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  NE | 89% | 7 | 7 | 84 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  CIN | 78% | 5 | 3 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 14 | PIT | 92% | 11 | 8 | 124 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 | CIN | 95% | 7 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  NYJ | 84% | 6 | 5 | 58 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  CLE | 89% | 5 | 3 | 78 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |