Josh Allen

86% to play

Game: 2026 wk 4
Total: 48.5
Implied team total: 27.5
Depth: #1
Recent snaps: 100%

30 yrs · 6′5″, 237 lb · Wyoming; Reedley · 2018 rd 1 pk 7

Projections

Market	Projection	Likely range	Fair odds	Evidence
Passing
Passing yards	242.9	127.8 – 325.1	–	Solid
Passing TDs	2.1	0.0 – 3.2	–	Solid
Completions	20.5	12.2 – 28.4	–	Solid
Pass attempts	30.4	17.9 – 40.6	–	Solid
Interceptions	0.8	0.0 – 2.1	–	Solid
Pass + rush yards	285.6	161.8 – 367.6	–	Solid
Longest completion	38.6	22.2 – 59.2	–	Solid
Rushing
Rushing yards	42.7	9.7 – 71.9	–	Solid
Rush attempts	9.9	1.0 – 13.5	–	Solid
Longest rush	22.2	6.3 – 32.6	–	Solid
Touchdowns
Anytime TD	44.0%	no range	+127	Differs from form
First TD scorer	13.3%	no range	+653	Solid

Form

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
Last 3	3	28.7	18.7	262.0	1.67	0.67	9.3	38.0	2.67	31.3
Last 5	5	32.0	21.8	268.4	1.80	0.80	10.2	42.6	2.40	29.2
Last 10	10	29.3	20.0	230.1	1.60	0.50	9.3	42.1	2.40	25.5
2026 season	3	28.7	18.7	262.0	1.67	0.67	9.3	38.0	2.67	31.3

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Career by season · totals

Window	GP	Att	Cmp	Pass yd	Pass TD	INT	Car	Rush yd	Sacked	PPR
2026	3	86	56	786	5	2	28	114	8	94
2025	16	460	319	3,668	25	10	112	579	40	365
2024	16	483	307	3,731	28	6	102	531	14	379
2023	17	579	385	4,306	29	18	111	524	24	393
2022	16	567	359	4,283	35	14	124	762	33	396
2021	17	646	409	4,407	36	15	122	763	26	403
2020	16	572	396	4,544	37	10	102	421	26	396
2019	16	461	271	3,089	20	9	109	510	38	289
2018	12	319	168	2,044	10	12	89	631	28	207

Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.

Injury history

3 injury entries across 3 seasons · 3 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often right elbow

2022right Elbow

2019Concussion

2018right Elbow×4

Model track record

out-of-sample, 2019 onwards

Market	Graded	In band	Avg miss	vs form
Passing yards	129	79%	60.3	+6.4
Passing TDs	129	84%	0.9	+0.1
Completions	129	81%	5.2	+0.5
Rushing yards	129	78%	20.3	-0.2
Pass attempts	129	83%	7.2	+0.3
Interceptions	129	88%	0.7	+0.0
Pass + rush yards	129	75%	65.1	+6.1
Rush attempts	129	88%	3.0	-0.2
Anytime TD	129	31% vs 48%	0.5	-0.0
First TD scorer	129	7% vs 10%	0.2	+0.0
Longest completion	129	88%	10.7	+1.4
Longest rush	128	84%	7.2	+0.6

Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.

Last 10 games

Game	Opp	Snap%	Tgt	Rec	RecYd	Car	RushYd	PassYd	TD
2026 wk 3	LAC	100%	1	1	1	8	22	204	2
2026 wk 2	DET	100%	0	0	0	14	69	248	5
2026 wk 1	HOU	100%	0	0	0	6	23	334	4
2025 wk 20	DEN	100%	0	0	0	12	66	283	3
2025 wk 19	JAX	100%	0	0	0	11	33	273	3
2025 wk 17	PHI	100%	0	0	0	7	27	262	2
2025 wk 16	CLE	100%	0	0	0	7	17	130	0
2025 wk 15	NE	100%	0	0	0	11	48	193	3
2025 wk 14	CIN	100%	0	0	0	9	78	251	4
2025 wk 13	PIT	100%	0	0	0	8	38	123	2