Dawson Knox
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 48.5
- Implied team total
- 27.5
- Depth
- #2
- Recent snaps
- 65%
29 yrs · 6′4″, 254 lb · Mississippi · 2019 rd 3 pk 96
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 14.4 | 0.0 – 40.7 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.8 | 0.0 – 3.6 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 13.5 | 3.7 – 27.3 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 19.6 | 0.0 – 45.9 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 16.4% | no range | +510 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 2.4% | no range | +4105 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5.7 | 0.33 | 5% | 0.08 | 1.00 | 71% | 3.9 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 15.8 | 0.20 | 7% | 0.14 | 1.00 | 65% | 4.8 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 27.3 | 0.40 | 11% | 0.23 | 1.57 | 58% | 8.0 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5.7 | 0.33 | 5% | 0.08 | 1.00 | 71% | 3.9 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 1 | 5% | 0 | 1 | 71% | 12 |
| 2025 | 16 | 49 | 36 | 417 | 4 | 11% | 4 | 13 | 59% | 104 |
| 2024 | 14 | 33 | 22 | 311 | 1 | 8% | 3 | 5 | 61% | 59 |
| 2023 | 10 | 36 | 22 | 186 | 2 | 11% | 2 | 9 | 61% | 55 |
| 2022 | 15 | 65 | 48 | 517 | 6 | 13% | 4 | 11 | 80% | 136 |
| 2021 | 15 | 71 | 49 | 587 | 9 | 13% | 4 | 19 | 87% | 164 |
| 2020 | 11 | 44 | 24 | 288 | 3 | 10% | 2 | 10 | 59% | 67 |
| 2019 | 15 | 50 | 28 | 388 | 2 | 11% | 4 | 6 | 64% | 80 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
7 injury entries across 5 seasons · 7 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often wrist
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 111 | 93% | 1.1 | +0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 111 | 87% | 16.8 | +1.5 |
| Rush + rec yards | 111 | 86% | 16.8 | +1.7 |
| Anytime TD | 111 | 20% vs 26% | 0.3 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 111 | 4% vs 12% | 0.1 | +0.1 |
| Longest reception | 107 | 79% | 8.3 | +0.8 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  LAC | 70% | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  DET | 76% | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  HOU | 67% | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  DEN | 64% | 5 | 3 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  JAX | 48% | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  NYJ | 5% | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  PHI | 63% | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  CLE | 68% | 2 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  NE | 64% | 4 | 3 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  CIN | 55% | 7 | 6 | 93 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |