Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 51.5
- Implied team total
- 27.5
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 87%
26 yrs · 6′0″, 202 lb · USC · 2021 rd 4 pk 112
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 6.1 | 0.0 – 14.9 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 76.8 | 21.9 – 131.9 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 6.0 | 1.0 – 9.3 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 24.9 | 10.4 – 41.5 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 72.8 | 22.3 – 131.4 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 40.4% | no range | +148 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 7.1% | no range | +1304 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 76.0 | 1.67 | 32% | 0.73 | 3.00 | 86% | 25.3 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 87.0 | 1.00 | 36% | 0.84 | 2.60 | 87% | 23.1 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 89.4 | 0.80 | 31% | 0.72 | 3.25 | 82% | 21.1 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 76.0 | 1.67 | 32% | 0.73 | 3.00 | 86% | 25.3 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 35 | 23 | 228 | 5 | 32% | 2 | 9 | 86% | 76 |
| 2025 | 17 | 172 | 117 | 1,401 | 11 | 32% | 13 | 35 | 85% | 324 |
| 2024 | 17 | 141 | 115 | 1,263 | 12 | 27% | 11 | 32 | 88% | 316 |
| 2023 | 16 | 164 | 119 | 1,515 | 10 | 30% | 11 | 26 | 90% | 331 |
| 2022 | 16 | 146 | 106 | 1,161 | 6 | 28% | 10 | 22 | 78% | 268 |
| 2021 | 16 | 119 | 90 | 912 | 5 | 23% | 8 | 17 | 76% | 227 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
8 injury entries across 4 seasons · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 86 | 72% | 2.4 | -0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 86 | 73% | 32.4 | +2.7 |
| Rush + rec yards | 86 | 71% | 33.0 | +4.5 |
| Anytime TD | 86 | 35% vs 44% | 0.5 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 86 | 8% vs 9% | 0.2 | +0.0 |
| Longest reception | 85 | 82% | 8.4 | +1.5 |
| Longest rush | 21 | 81% | 6.9 | +1.0 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  NYJ | 74% | 8 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  BUF | 95% | 13 | 9 | 142 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  NO | 90% | 14 | 10 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  CHI | 95% | 15 | 11 | 139 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  MIN | 83% | 13 | 8 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  PIT | 97% | 9 | 4 | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  LA | 95% | 18 | 13 | 164 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  DAL | 92% | 9 | 6 | 92 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  GB | 6% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 |  NYG | 97% | 13 | 9 | 149 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |