Josh Palmer
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 48.5
- Implied team total
- 27.5
- Depth
- #4
- Recent snaps
- 55%
27 yrs · 6′1″, 210 lb · Tennessee · 2021 rd 3 pk 77
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 8.4 | 0.0 – 19.5 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 21.4 | 0.0 – 51.2 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.7 | 0.0 – 3.4 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 18.1 | 4.8 – 35.5 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 18.0 | 0.0 – 47.2 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 14.3% | no range | +601 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 1.8% | no range | +5495 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 26.0 | 0.67 | 10% | 0.23 | 2.00 | 51% | 7.6 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 18.4 | 0.40 | 8% | 0.18 | 2.00 | 55% | 5.2 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 24.2 | 0.20 | 9% | 0.23 | 2.00 | 47% | 5.0 |
| 2026 season | 2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 38.5 | 1.00 | 9% | 0.25 | – | 35% | 10.9 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 77 | 2 | 9% | 0 | – | 35% | 22 |
| 2025 | 12 | 37 | 22 | 303 | 0 | 10% | 3 | 6 | 48% | 52 |
| 2024 | 15 | 65 | 39 | 584 | 1 | 15% | 6 | 9 | 66% | 107 |
| 2023 | 10 | 61 | 38 | 581 | 2 | 18% | 4 | 9 | 75% | 107 |
| 2022 | 16 | 107 | 72 | 769 | 3 | 17% | 7 | 9 | 80% | 169 |
| 2021 | 15 | 49 | 33 | 353 | 4 | 9% | 3 | 8 | 42% | 93 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
9 injury entries across 4 seasons · 10 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 69 | 87% | 1.4 | +0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 69 | 83% | 20.0 | +3.3 |
| Rush + rec yards | 69 | 83% | 20.6 | +2.6 |
| Anytime TD | 69 | 21% vs 13% | 0.3 | -0.1 |
| First TD scorer | 69 | 5% vs 3% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 67 | 76% | 11.2 | +1.6 |
| Longest rush | 3 | 100% | 1.4 | – |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 2 |  DET | 38% | 3 | 1 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  HOU | 31% | 2 | 1 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  NYJ | 84% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 17 |  PHI | 50% | 2 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  CLE | 70% | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  NE | 33% | 2 | 1 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 12 | HOU | 50% | 4 | 2 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 11 |  TB | 50% | 5 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 6 |  ATL | 11% | 2 | 2 | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 5 | NE | 51% | 2 | 2 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |