Dalton Kincaid
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 48.5
- Implied team total
- 27.5
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 60%
26 yrs · 6′3″, 246 lb · Utah; Univ of California-San Diego · 2023 rd 1 pk 25
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 44.7 | 9.0 – 82.5 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 3.7 | 1.0 – 5.4 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 22.8 | 7.4 – 36.6 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 42.0 | 8.6 – 97.0 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 26.6% | no range | +276 | Differs from form |
| First TD scorer | 5.5% | no range | +1717 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 87.7 | 0.33 | 21% | 0.48 | 1.00 | 68% | 14.8 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 74.8 | 0.60 | 18% | 0.42 | 1.00 | 60% | 15.3 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 53.4 | 0.40 | 15% | 0.35 | 1.20 | 44% | 11.0 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 87.7 | 0.33 | 21% | 0.48 | 1.00 | 68% | 14.8 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 17 | 14 | 263 | 1 | 21% | 1 | 1 | 68% | 44 |
| 2025 | 12 | 49 | 39 | 571 | 5 | 15% | 4 | 9 | 37% | 126 |
| 2024 | 13 | 75 | 44 | 448 | 2 | 20% | 6 | 10 | 57% | 101 |
| 2023 | 16 | 91 | 73 | 673 | 2 | 18% | 6 | 9 | 63% | 150 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
5 injury entries across 3 seasons · 4 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often knee
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 48 | 81% | 1.7 | +0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 48 | 71% | 21.8 | +2.4 |
| Rush + rec yards | 48 | 73% | 21.5 | +2.7 |
| Anytime TD | 48 | 24% vs 25% | 0.4 | -0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 48 | 5% vs 4% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 46 | 91% | 7.3 | +0.9 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  LAC | 67% | 3 | 2 | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  DET | 66% | 8 | 7 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  HOU | 72% | 6 | 5 | 130 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  DEN | 49% | 6 | 6 | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  JAX | 44% | 5 | 3 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  NYJ | 13% | 3 | 3 | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 16 |  CLE | 38% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 15 |  NE | 36% | 4 | 3 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  CIN | 34% | 5 | 4 | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 10 |  MIA | 26% | 3 | 2 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |