Sam LaPorta
TE
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 51.5
- Implied team total
- 27.5
- Depth
- #1
- Recent snaps
- 89%
25 yrs · 6′3″, 245 lb · Iowa · 2023 rd 2 pk 34
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 47.0 | 10.7 – 82.3 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 4.6 | 1.0 – 7.7 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 19.8 | 7.3 – 33.9 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 42.1 | 10.5 – 89.6 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 25.6% | no range | +291 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 5.3% | no range | +1793 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 48.0 | 0.33 | 17% | 0.33 | 1.67 | 90% | 11.5 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 58.8 | 0.40 | 18% | 0.36 | 1.50 | 89% | 13.3 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 52.8 | 0.40 | 18% | 0.38 | 1.29 | 91% | 12.2 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 48.0 | 0.33 | 17% | 0.33 | 1.67 | 90% | 11.5 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 19 | 14 | 144 | 1 | 17% | 1 | 5 | 90% | 34 |
| 2025 | 9 | 49 | 40 | 489 | 3 | 18% | 4 | 6 | 91% | 107 |
| 2024 | 16 | 83 | 60 | 726 | 7 | 18% | 6 | 20 | 85% | 175 |
| 2023 | 17 | 120 | 86 | 889 | 10 | 21% | 8 | 18 | 83% | 239 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
4 injury entries across 3 seasons · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often back
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 46 | 80% | 1.8 | -0.0 |
| Receiving yards | 46 | 80% | 22.6 | +0.7 |
| Rush + rec yards | 46 | 78% | 23.0 | +0.3 |
| Anytime TD | 46 | 31% vs 39% | 0.4 | +0.1 |
| Longest reception | 46 | 76% | 9.4 | +1.4 |
| First TD scorer | 46 | 7% vs 13% | 0.2 | +0.1 |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
