Keon Coleman
WR
- Game
- 2026 wk 4
- Total
- 48.5
- Implied team total
- 27.5
- Depth
- #3
- Recent snaps
- 52%
23 yrs · 6′3″, 213 lb · Florida State; Michigan State · 2024 rd 2 pk 33
Projections
| Market | Projection | Likely range | Fair odds | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | ||||
| Longest rush | 8.4 | 0.0 – 19.6 | – | Little to go on |
| Receiving | ||||
| Receiving yards | 19.8 | 0.0 – 56.8 | – | Solid |
| Receptions | 1.8 | 0.0 – 3.8 | – | Solid |
| Longest reception | 21.9 | 4.9 – 37.4 | – | Solid |
| Rush + rec yards | 18.7 | 0.0 – 60.5 | – | Solid |
| Touchdowns | ||||
| Anytime TD | 12.6% | no range | +693 | Solid |
| First TD scorer | 4.1% | no range | +2349 | Solid |
Form
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 3 | 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 33.7 | 0.00 | 11% | 0.27 | 1.00 | 57% | 6.0 |
| Last 5 | 5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 29.4 | 0.20 | 9% | 0.22 | 1.33 | 52% | 6.1 |
| Last 10 | 10 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 28.4 | 0.30 | 11% | 0.29 | 1.50 | 54% | 6.9 |
| 2026 season | 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 33.7 | 0.00 | 11% | 0.27 | 1.00 | 57% | 6.0 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Career by season · totals
| Window | GP | Tgt | Rec | Rec yd | Rec TD | Tgt share | WOPR | RZ tgt | Snap% | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 101 | 0 | 11% | 1 | 2 | 57% | 18 |
| 2025 | 12 | 59 | 38 | 404 | 4 | 17% | 5 | 12 | 66% | 102 |
| 2024 | 13 | 57 | 29 | 556 | 4 | 15% | 5 | 12 | 73% | 112 |
Per-game averages over completed games, newest first. Windows match the rolling features the models are trained on.
Injury history
2 injury entries across 2 seasons · 2 weeks ruled out or doubtful · most often wrist
Model track record
out-of-sample, 2019 onwards| Market | Graded | In band | Avg miss | vs form |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receptions | 30 | 93% | 1.4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving yards | 30 | 80% | 25.9 | -1.9 |
| Rush + rec yards | 30 | 73% | 28.4 | -4.4 |
| Anytime TD | 30 | 25% vs 30% | 0.4 | +0.0 |
| First TD scorer | 30 | 5% vs 3% | 0.1 | -0.0 |
| Longest reception | 29 | 79% | 12.8 | -0.2 |
| Longest rush | 1 | 100% | 1.9 | – |
Out-of-sample: each prediction came from a model trained only on earlier seasons. In band should sit near 80% where a band exists — that is the calibration claim, checkable here. It is tinted only when it strays further than sampling noise explains, which for one player is roughly ±7 points. vs form is how much closer the model landed than guessing his recent average. This grades the model against RESULTS, not against a betting line.
Last 10 games
| Game | Opp | Snap% | Tgt | Rec | RecYd | Car | RushYd | PassYd | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 wk 3 |  LAC | 48% | 2 | 1 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 2 |  DET | 74% | 6 | 6 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2026 wk 1 |  HOU | 50% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 20 |  DEN | 45% | 3 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 19 |  JAX | 43% | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 18 |  NYJ | 81% | 4 | 2 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 14 |  CIN | 28% | 3 | 2 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2025 wk 13 |  PIT | 45% | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 10 |  MIA | 62% | 8 | 3 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2025 wk 9 |  KC | 68% | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |