2026 week 1 results
2,294 graded projections, 1,416 of them on a bet a book was really offering · 807 players did not take the field
This grades what the site actually PUBLISHED, not what the model would have said in testing — the only comparison that can see a bug in the serving path, where five have shipped undetected. A player who did not play is recorded and excluded from every number here rather than settled at zero, because a prop voids rather than losing.
Betting record
Value bets
−1.47u
312–289 · return −0.2%
612 recommended · 11 void
Slate picks
+5.45u
45–35 · return +6.8%
80 recommended
One unit a bet. A push or a player who did not play returns the stake and is left out of the return. One week is noise: a real 3% edge takes hundreds of bets to show through, so read this for patterns - a market that loses week after week - rather than for a verdict.
| Value bets by market | Settled | Record | Units | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving yards | 119 | 61–58 | −3.44u | −2.9% |
| Receptions | 111 | 61–50 | +10.12u | +9.1% |
| Longest reception | 86 | 46–40 | +1.13u | +1.3% |
| Rushing yards | 55 | 28–27 | −1.41u | −2.6% |
| Longest rush | 44 | 19–25 | −8.20u | −18.6% |
| Rush attempts | 41 | 22–19 | +0.35u | +0.9% |
| Rush + rec yards | 31 | 16–15 | −0.81u | −2.6% |
| Interceptions | 22 | 10–12 | −1.61u | −7.3% |
| Pass attempts | 18 | 9–9 | −0.96u | −5.3% |
| Completions | 16 | 12–4 | +6.72u | +42.0% |
| Pass + rush yards | 16 | 8–8 | −0.90u | −5.7% |
| Passing yards | 15 | 10–5 | +3.91u | +26.1% |
| Longest completion | 14 | 4–10 | −6.43u | −45.9% |
| Passing TDs | 13 | 6–7 | +0.07u | +0.6% |
| Anytime TD | 0 | 0–0 | +0.00u | – |
| First TD scorer | 0 | 0–0 | +0.00u | – |
| Wed 8:20 PM slate · top 52–3 · −1.19u | Odds | Result | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rhamondre Stevenson Under 15.5 rush attempts | -118 | loss | −1.00u |
| 2 | Sam Darnold Over 5.5 longest rush | -102 | loss | −1.00u |
| 3 | Romeo Doubs Over 35.5 receiving yards | -111 | loss | −1.00u |
| 4 | Drake Maye Over 0.5 interceptions | -117 | win | +0.85u |
| 5 | Hunter Henry Under 16.5 longest reception | -105 | win | +0.95u |
| Thu 8:35 PM slate · top 53–2 · +1.03u | Odds | Result | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davante Adams Under 4.5 receptions | -110 | win | +0.91u |
| 2 | Colby Parkinson Over 2.5 receptions | +138 | loss | −1.00u |
| 3 | George Kittle Over 33.5 receiving yards | -114 | loss | −1.00u |
| 4 | Christian McCaffrey Under 15.5 rush attempts | +101 | win | +1.01u |
| 5 | Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 interceptions | +111 | win | +1.11u |
| Sun 1:00 PM – 4:25 PM slate · top 6033–27 · +2.11u | Odds | Result | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rico Dowdle Under 12.5 rush attempts | -133 | win | +0.75u |
| 2 | Josh Downs Under 4.5 receptions | -152 | win | +0.66u |
| 3 | Woody Marks Over 7.5 longest reception | -109 | loss | −1.00u |
| 4 | Luther Burden III Under 4.5 receptions | +105 | loss | −1.00u |
| 5 | Quinshon Judkins Under 15.5 rush attempts | -110 | win | +0.91u |
| 6 | Jahmyr Gibbs Under 121.5 rush + rec yards | -113 | loss | −1.00u |
| 7 | Breece Hall Under 91.5 rush + rec yards | -114 | loss | −1.00u |
| 8 | Bucky Irving Under 60.5 rushing yards | -113 | win | +0.88u |
| 9 | Jahan Dotson Over 9.5 longest reception | -122 | win | +0.82u |
| 10 | Alec Pierce Over 29.5 receiving yards | -113 | win | +0.88u |
| 11 | Josh Allen Over 0.5 interceptions | -130 | loss | −1.00u |
| 12 | Tommy Tremble Over 9.5 longest reception | -113 | win | +0.88u |
| 13 | Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 interceptions | +107 | loss | −1.00u |
| 14 | Devaughn Vele Under 3.5 receptions | -115 | loss | −1.00u |
| 15 | Wan'Dale Robinson Over 16.5 longest reception | -117 | loss | −1.00u |
| 16 | Emeka Egbuka Under 4.5 receptions | -121 | loss | −1.00u |
| 17 | Bijan Robinson Under 18.5 rush attempts | -111 | loss | −1.00u |
| 18 | Jonathan Taylor Under 76.5 rushing yards | -113 | loss | −1.00u |
| 19 | Khalil Shakir Over 16.5 longest reception | -107 | win | +0.93u |
| 20 | Caleb Williams Over 20.5 completions | -102 | win | +0.98u |
| 21 | Jerry Jeudy Over 15.5 longest reception | -120 | win | +0.83u |
| 22 | Tyler Shough Over 0.5 interceptions | -117 | win | +0.85u |
| 23 | Tony Pollard Over 7.5 longest reception | -102 | loss | −1.00u |
| 24 | Kenny Gainwell Over 10.5 longest reception | -123 | loss | −1.00u |
| 25 | Kyle Pitts Over 37.5 receiving yards | -113 | loss | −1.00u |
| 26 | Lamar Jackson Under 14.5 longest rush | -120 | loss | −1.00u |
| 27 | DJ Moore Under 47.5 receiving yards | -113 | loss | −1.00u |
| 28 | D'Andre Swift Over 8.5 longest reception | -104 | win | +0.96u |
| 29 | Parker Washington Over 21.5 longest reception | -105 | win | +0.95u |
| 30 | Jared Goff Over 0.5 interceptions | +121 | loss | −1.00u |
| 31 | Mason Taylor Over 20.5 receiving yards | -116 | loss | −1.00u |
| 32 | Joe Burrow Over 0.5 interceptions | +119 | win | +1.19u |
| 33 | Darnell Washington Over 10.5 longest reception | -118 | win | +0.85u |
| 34 | Tyler Warren Under 47.5 receiving yards | -114 | win | +0.88u |
| 35 | Kayshon Boutte Over 15.5 longest reception | -108 | win | +0.93u |
| 36 | Bryce Young Over 33.5 longest completion | -115 | win | +0.87u |
| 37 | Harold Fannin Jr. Over 15.5 longest reception | -111 | loss | −1.00u |
| 38 | Sam LaPorta Over 4.5 receptions | +119 | win | +1.19u |
| 39 | Garrett Wilson Under 5.5 receptions | -114 | loss | −1.00u |
| 40 | Chase Brown Over 3.5 receptions | -101 | win | +0.99u |
| 41 | Michael Wilson Over 3.5 receptions | -130 | win | +0.77u |
| 42 | Aaron Jones Over 28.5 rushing yards | -114 | win | +0.88u |
| 43 | Jalen Nailor Under 3.5 receptions | -158 | win | +0.63u |
| 44 | Jalen Hurts Under 7.5 rush attempts | -147 | win | +0.68u |
| 45 | Ladd McConkey Under 4.5 receptions | +111 | loss | −1.00u |
| 46 | Jordan Addison Under 3.5 receptions | -118 | win | +0.85u |
| 47 | Malik Willis Under 7.5 rush attempts | -140 | win | +0.71u |
| 48 | DeVonta Smith Under 5.5 receptions | -125 | win | +0.80u |
| 49 | Justin Herbert Under 237.5 passing yards | -111 | win | +0.90u |
| 50 | Justin Jefferson Under 76.5 receiving yards | -112 | loss | −1.00u |
| 51 | Michael Mayer Under 4.5 receptions | -112 | loss | −1.00u |
| 52 | Stefon Diggs Under 43.5 receiving yards | -114 | loss | −1.00u |
| 53 | Jacoby Brissett Over 31.5 longest completion | -117 | win | +0.85u |
| 54 | Kyler Murray Over 32.5 longest completion | -119 | loss | −1.00u |
| 55 | Ashton Jeanty Over 9.5 longest reception | -108 | win | +0.93u |
| 56 | Saquon Barkley Over 9.5 longest reception | -108 | loss | −1.00u |
| 57 | Trey McBride Over 6.5 receptions | +113 | win | +1.13u |
| 58 | Jordan Love Over 20.5 completions | -115 | win | +0.87u |
| 59 | Malik Washington Over 14.5 longest reception | -110 | win | +0.91u |
| 60 | Chig Okonkwo Over 2.5 receptions | -163 | loss | −1.00u |
| Sun 8:20 PM slate · top 53–2 · +0.67u | Odds | Result | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Theo Johnson Over 11.5 longest reception | -105 | loss | −1.00u |
| 2 | Javonte Williams Under 77.5 rushing yards | -112 | win | +0.89u |
| 3 | Isaiah Likely Under 38.5 receiving yards | -113 | loss | −1.00u |
| 4 | Cam Skattebo Over 12.5 longest rush | -114 | win | +0.88u |
| 5 | CeeDee Lamb Under 75.5 receiving yards | -111 | win | +0.90u |
| Mon 8:15 PM slate · top 54–1 · +2.83u | Odds | Result | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaylen Waddle Under 4.5 receptions | +100 | win | +1.00u |
| 2 | Bo Nix Over 0.5 interceptions | -113 | win | +0.88u |
| 3 | Courtland Sutton Under 3.5 receptions | +109 | win | +1.09u |
| 4 | Patrick Mahomes Over 8.5 longest rush | -117 | win | +0.85u |
| 5 | Rashee Rice Over 20.5 longest reception | -107 | loss | −1.00u |
By market
| Market | Graded | MAE | Form MAE | MAE, priced | Right side | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 295 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 0.28/267 | – | +0.01 |
| First TD scorer | 264 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.09/239 | – | +0.00 |
| Receptions | 264 | 1.38 | 1.33 | 1.51/164 | 50%82/164 | -0.05 |
| Receiving yards | 264 | 16.87 | 17.31 | 21.03/165 | 56%92/165 | +0.43 |
| Rush + rec yards | 264 | 20.82 | 21.85 | 29.62/41 | 59%24/41 | +1.03 |
| Longest reception | 188 | 8.51 | 9.44 | 9.20/124 | 58%72/124 | +0.93 |
| Rush attempts | 102 | 3.20 | 3.75 | 3.69/61 | 52%32/61 | +0.55 |
| Rushing yards | 102 | 16.95 | 19.36 | 18.74/76 | 54%41/76 | +2.42 |
| Longest rush | 99 | 5.70 | 6.81 | 6.44/65 | 49%32/65 | +1.11 |
| Completions | 31 | 4.15 | 4.74 | 4.15/31 | 68%21/31 | +0.59 |
| Interceptions | 31 | 0.67 | 0.65 | 0.67/31 | 48%15/31 | -0.01 |
| Longest completion | 31 | 13.38 | 13.44 | 13.38/31 | 39%12/31 | +0.06 |
| Pass attempts | 31 | 6.49 | 7.63 | 6.49/31 | 52%16/31 | +1.14 |
| Pass + rush yards | 31 | 70.55 | 75.18 | 76.46/28 | 50%14/28 | +4.63 |
| Passing TDs | 31 | 0.93 | 0.97 | 0.93/31 | 55%17/31 | +0.04 |
| Passing yards | 31 | 65.86 | 70.45 | 65.86/31 | 71%22/31 | +4.58 |
Furthest from the mark
Where the published number was most wrong. Worth reading for a pattern — one market, one team, one kind of player — rather than as a list of individual failures.
| Player | Market | Projected | Actual | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sam DarnoldQB | Pass + rush yards | 249.5 | 13.0 | 236.5 |
 Kyler MurrayQB | Pass + rush yards | 254.5 | 27.0 | 227.5 |
| Sam DarnoldQB | Passing yards | 240.2 | 13.0 | 227.2 |
| Kyler MurrayQB | Passing yards | 230.7 | 18.0 | 212.7 |
 Tyler ShoughQB | Passing yards | 241.5 | 410.0 | 168.5 |
 Bryce YoungQB | Passing yards | 193.2 | 361.0 | 167.8 |
| Bryce YoungQB | Pass + rush yards | 209.3 | 371.0 | 161.7 |
| Tyler ShoughQB | Pass + rush yards | 259.1 | 418.0 | 158.9 |
 Lamar JacksonQB | Pass + rush yards | 207.5 | 364.0 | 156.5 |
 Jordan LoveQB | Passing yards | 242.6 | 387.0 | 144.4 |
| Lamar JacksonQB | Passing yards | 186.5 | 324.0 | 137.5 |
| Jordan LoveQB | Pass + rush yards | 255.1 | 387.0 | 131.9 |
 Matthew StaffordQB | Pass + rush yards | 274.8 | 154.0 | 120.8 |
 Bo NixQB | Pass + rush yards | 249.4 | 133.0 | 116.4 |
| Matthew StaffordQB | Passing yards | 269.3 | 155.0 | 114.3 |