2026 week 3 results
2,587 graded projections, 1,556 of them on a bet a book was really offering · 839 players did not take the field
This grades what the site actually PUBLISHED, not what the model would have said in testing — the only comparison that can see a bug in the serving path, where five have shipped undetected. A player who did not play is recorded and excluded from every number here rather than settled at zero, because a prop voids rather than losing.
Betting record
Value bets
−11.54u
297–282 · return −2.0%
595 recommended · 16 void
Season: −114.84u · 902–941 · return −6.2%
Slate picks
+1.02u
43–37 · return +1.3%
80 recommended
Season: −2.88u · 124–113 · return −1.2%
One unit a bet. A push or a player who did not play returns the stake and is left out of the return. One week is noise: a real 3% edge takes hundreds of bets to show through, so read this for patterns - a market that loses week after week - rather than for a verdict.
| Value bets by market | Settled | Record | Units | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving yards | 127 | 66–61 | −1.81u | −1.4% |
| Receptions | 125 | 72–53 | +12.47u | +10.0% |
| Longest reception | 68 | 31–37 | −9.57u | −14.1% |
| Rushing yards | 62 | 25–37 | −14.44u | −23.3% |
| Rush attempts | 37 | 21–16 | +2.75u | +7.4% |
| Interceptions | 25 | 11–14 | −2.88u | −11.5% |
| Longest rush | 23 | 12–11 | −0.28u | −1.2% |
| Rush + rec yards | 22 | 8–14 | −6.86u | −31.2% |
| Passing TDs | 19 | 10–9 | +2.73u | +14.4% |
| Passing yards | 18 | 13–5 | +6.62u | +36.8% |
| Pass attempts | 16 | 5–11 | −6.40u | −40.0% |
| Pass + rush yards | 14 | 9–5 | +2.96u | +21.1% |
| Completions | 13 | 7–6 | +0.20u | +1.5% |
| Longest completion | 8 | 7–1 | +4.96u | +62.0% |
| Anytime TD | 2 | 0–2 | −2.00u | −100.0% |
| Thu 8:15 PM slate · top 51–4 · −3.10u | Odds | Result | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bijan Robinson Under 122.5 rush + rec yards | -114 | loss | −1.00u |
| 2 | Matthew Golden Under 55.5 receiving yards | -110 | loss | −1.00u |
| 3 | Drake London Under 5.5 receptions | -111 | loss | −1.00u |
| 4 | Christian Watson Under 71.5 receiving yards | -114 | loss | −1.00u |
| 5 | Michael Penix Jr. Under 19.5 completions | -111 | win | +0.90u |
| Sun 1:00 PM – 4:25 PM slate · top 6535–30 · +0.54u | Odds | Result | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Quinshon Judkins Under 16.5 rush attempts | -124 | loss | −1.00u |
| 2 | Pat Freiermuth Under 37.5 receiving yards | -114 | win | +0.88u |
| 3 | C.J. Stroud Over 0.5 interceptions | -105 | loss | −1.00u |
| 4 | Malik Willis Over 0.5 interceptions | -125 | win | +0.80u |
| 5 | Ladd McConkey Under 4.5 receptions | +112 | win | +1.12u |
| 6 | Drake Maye Over 0.5 interceptions | -108 | win | +0.93u |
| 7 | Garrett Wilson Under 6.5 receptions | -114 | loss | −1.00u |
| 8 | Sam Darnold Under 18.5 completions | +100 | loss | −1.00u |
| 9 | Isaiah Likely Under 4.5 receptions | -157 | win | +0.64u |
| 10 | Chuba Hubbard Under 16.5 rush attempts | -101 | loss | −1.00u |
| 11 | Ja'Marr Chase Under 76.5 receiving yards | -111 | loss | −1.00u |
| 12 | Dalton Schultz Under 5.5 receptions | -146 | win | +0.68u |
| 13 | Xavier Worthy Under 3.5 receptions | -123 | win | +0.81u |
| 14 | Justin Herbert Under 229.5 passing yards | -112 | win | +0.89u |
| 15 | Rhamondre Stevenson Over 54.5 rush + rec yards | -110 | loss | −1.00u |
| 16 | Breece Hall Under 3.5 receptions | -157 | win | +0.64u |
| 17 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba Under 6.5 receptions | +100 | loss | −1.00u |
| 18 | Jameis Winston Under 199.5 passing yards | -112 | win | +0.89u |
| 19 | Tommy Tremble Over 7.5 longest reception | -106 | win | +0.94u |
| 20 | Joe Burrow Under 0.5 interceptions | +106 | win | +1.06u |
| 21 | Josh Downs Under 4.5 receptions | +105 | loss | −1.00u |
| 22 | Kenneth Walker III Over 10.5 longest reception | -113 | loss | −1.00u |
| 23 | Josh Allen Over 30.5 pass attempts | -103 | loss | −1.00u |
| 24 | Hunter Henry Under 41.5 receiving yards | -111 | win | +0.90u |
| 25 | Amon-Ra St. Brown Under 7.5 receptions | -130 | win | +0.77u |
| 26 | Marcus Mariota Under 24.5 rushing yards | -117 | win | +0.85u |
| 27 | Wan'Dale Robinson Over 30.5 receiving yards | -114 | win | +0.88u |
| 28 | Bryce Young Over 0.5 interceptions | +108 | win | +1.08u |
| 29 | Aaron Rodgers Under 0.5 interceptions | -119 | loss | −1.00u |
| 30 | Kayshon Boutte Under 2.5 receptions | -105 | win | +0.95u |
| 31 | Malik Washington Under 3.5 receptions | +102 | loss | −1.00u |
| 32 | James Cook Over 8.5 longest reception | -122 | loss | −1.00u |
| 33 | Trevor Lawrence Under 0.5 interceptions | -103 | loss | −1.00u |
| 34 | Jahmyr Gibbs Under 90.5 rushing yards | -114 | loss | −1.00u |
| 35 | Rashid Shaheed Under 2.5 receptions | -125 | win | +0.80u |
| 36 | Cam Ward Over 7.5 longest rush | -109 | loss | −1.00u |
| 37 | Tetairoa McMillan Under 4.5 receptions | +102 | win | +1.02u |
| 38 | Chase Brown Under 15.5 rush attempts | -108 | win | +0.93u |
| 39 | Tyler Warren Under 47.5 receiving yards | -114 | loss | −1.00u |
| 40 | Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 passing tds | +148 | loss | −1.00u |
| 41 | Quentin Johnston Under 37.5 receiving yards | -111 | loss | −1.00u |
| 42 | Mack Hollins Under 2.5 receptions | +119 | loss | −1.00u |
| 43 | Geno Smith Under 0.5 interceptions | -105 | win | +0.95u |
| 44 | AJ Barner Over 11.5 longest reception | -109 | win | +0.92u |
| 45 | Cam Skattebo Under 79.5 rush + rec yards | -114 | loss | −1.00u |
| 46 | Trey McBride Under 7.5 receptions | -137 | loss | −1.00u |
| 47 | Jordan Addison Under 3.5 receptions | -165 | loss | −1.00u |
| 48 | Jacoby Brissett Over 0.5 interceptions | +106 | loss | −1.00u |
| 49 | Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 interceptions | -113 | win | +0.88u |
| 50 | Christian McCaffrey Under 100.5 rush + rec yards | -111 | loss | −1.00u |
| 51 | Kyler Murray Under 213.5 passing yards | -111 | win | +0.90u |
| 52 | Marvin Harrison Jr. Under 32.5 receiving yards | -110 | loss | −1.00u |
| 53 | Justin Jefferson Under 73.5 receiving yards | -111 | win | +0.90u |
| 54 | Michael Wilson Over 46.5 receiving yards | -112 | win | +0.89u |
| 55 | Emeka Egbuka Under 49.5 receiving yards | -111 | loss | −1.00u |
| 56 | Rashod Bateman Under 3.5 receptions | -134 | win | +0.75u |
| 57 | Kirk Cousins Over 0.5 interceptions | -131 | loss | −1.00u |
| 58 | Lamar Jackson Under 40.5 rushing yards | -113 | loss | −1.00u |
| 59 | Tyler Shough Over 0.5 interceptions | -102 | win | +0.98u |
| 60 | Mark Andrews Under 4.5 receptions | -160 | win | +0.63u |
| 61 | Jalen Nailor Under 2.5 receptions | -150 | win | +0.67u |
| 62 | Jake Ferguson Under 3.5 receptions | -101 | win | +0.99u |
| 63 | Michael Mayer Over 20.5 receiving yards | -113 | win | +0.88u |
| 64 | Dak Prescott Under 25.5 completions | -118 | win | +0.85u |
| 65 | Devaughn Vele Under 49.5 receiving yards | -113 | win | +0.88u |
| Sun 8:20 PM slate · top 53–2 · +0.96u | Odds | Result | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Davante Adams Under 70.5 receiving yards | -113 | loss | −1.00u |
| 2 | Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 interceptions | -108 | win | +0.93u |
| 3 | Jaylen Waddle Under 4.5 receptions | +123 | win | +1.23u |
| 4 | Kyren Williams Over 11.5 longest rush | -124 | win | +0.81u |
| 5 | RJ Harvey Over 20.5 rushing yards | -109 | loss | −1.00u |
| Mon 8:15 PM slate · top 54–1 · +2.62u | Odds | Result | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zach Ertz Over 8.5 longest reception | -111 | win | +0.90u |
| 2 | Cole Kmet Over 7.5 longest reception | -104 | loss | −1.00u |
| 3 | Jalen Hurts Under 6.5 rush attempts | -107 | win | +0.93u |
| 4 | DeVonta Smith Under 71.5 receiving yards | -114 | win | +0.88u |
| 5 | Saquon Barkley Under 17.5 rush attempts | -110 | win | +0.91u |
By market
| Market | Graded | MAE | Form MAE | MAE, priced | Right side | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 335 | 0.27 | 0.27 | 0.27/327 | – | -0.01 |
| Receptions | 304 | 1.39 | 1.34 | 1.63/175 | 51%90/175 | -0.05 |
| Receiving yards | 304 | 15.83 | 16.96 | 19.66/178 | 53%94/178 | +1.13 |
| Rush + rec yards | 304 | 19.57 | 21.04 | 31.43/44 | 32%14/44 | +1.47 |
| First TD scorer | 302 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.09/295 | – | -0.00 |
| Longest reception | 228 | 8.32 | 10.01 | 8.99/124 | 57%71/124 | +1.69 |
| Rush attempts | 113 | 2.80 | 3.26 | 3.51/53 | 51%27/53 | +0.46 |
| Rushing yards | 113 | 16.51 | 18.63 | 18.67/89 | 42%37/89 | +2.13 |
| Longest rush | 107 | 6.07 | 6.26 | 7.23/56 | 38%21/56 | +0.19 |
| Completions | 31 | 5.06 | 5.30 | 5.06/31 | 42%13/31 | +0.24 |
| Interceptions | 31 | 0.59 | 0.63 | 0.59/31 | 55%17/31 | +0.04 |
| Longest completion | 31 | 10.57 | 10.60 | 10.57/31 | 55%17/31 | +0.03 |
| Pass attempts | 31 | 7.54 | 8.21 | 7.54/31 | 45%14/31 | +0.66 |
| Pass + rush yards | 31 | 46.86 | 52.14 | 47.45/29 | 55%16/29 | +5.28 |
| Passing TDs | 31 | 0.96 | 0.95 | 0.96/31 | 61%19/31 | -0.01 |
| Passing yards | 31 | 45.58 | 52.44 | 45.58/31 | 65%20/31 | +6.85 |
Furthest from the mark
Where the published number was most wrong. Worth reading for a pattern — one market, one team, one kind of player — rather than as a list of individual failures.
| Player | Market | Projected | Actual | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sam DarnoldQB | Passing yards | 121.9 | 379.0 | 257.1 |
| Sam DarnoldQB | Pass + rush yards | 128.5 | 384.0 | 255.5 |
 Matthew StaffordQB | Pass + rush yards | 256.7 | 403.0 | 146.3 |
 Drake LondonWR | Receiving yards | 54.3 | 194.0 | 139.7 |
| Drake LondonWR | Rush + rec yards | 55.0 | 194.0 | 139.0 |
| Matthew StaffordQB | Passing yards | 251.2 | 390.0 | 138.8 |
| Bijan RobinsonRB | Rushing yards | 75.3 | 194.0 | 118.7 |
 Jaylen WarrenRB | Rush + rec yards | 72.2 | 176.0 | 103.8 |
| Bijan RobinsonRB | Rush + rec yards | 109.5 | 213.0 | 103.5 |
 Geno SmithQB | Pass + rush yards | 242.2 | 333.0 | 90.8 |
| Geno SmithQB | Passing yards | 231.4 | 321.0 | 89.6 |
| Davante AdamsWR | Rush + rec yards | 49.7 | 137.0 | 87.3 |
| Kenyon SadiqTE | Receiving yards | 17.9 | 105.0 | 87.1 |
 De'Von AchaneRB | Rush + rec yards | 103.1 | 17.0 | 86.1 |
 C.J. StroudQB | Pass + rush yards | 260.7 | 177.0 | 83.7 |