2026 week 2 results
2,578 graded projections, 1,542 of them on a bet a book was really offering · 805 players did not take the field
This grades what the site actually PUBLISHED, not what the model would have said in testing — the only comparison that can see a bug in the serving path, where five have shipped undetected. A player who did not play is recorded and excluded from every number here rather than settled at zero, because a prop voids rather than losing.
Betting record
Value bets
−101.83u
293–370 · return −15.4%
684 recommended · 21 void
Season: −103.30u · 605–659 · return −8.2%
Slate picks
−9.36u
36–41 · return −12.2%
80 recommended · 3 void
Season: −3.91u · 81–76 · return −2.5%
One unit a bet. A push or a player who did not play returns the stake and is left out of the return. One week is noise: a real 3% edge takes hundreds of bets to show through, so read this for patterns - a market that loses week after week - rather than for a verdict.
| Value bets by market | Settled | Record | Units | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving yards | 112 | 51–61 | −15.43u | −13.8% |
| Longest reception | 108 | 43–65 | −27.21u | −25.2% |
| Receptions | 108 | 49–59 | −11.85u | −11.0% |
| Rushing yards | 73 | 32–41 | −10.93u | −15.0% |
| Longest rush | 50 | 18–32 | −16.33u | −32.7% |
| Rush attempts | 39 | 19–20 | −3.08u | −7.9% |
| Interceptions | 31 | 13–18 | −4.27u | −13.8% |
| Rush + rec yards | 30 | 15–15 | −1.66u | −5.5% |
| Longest completion | 24 | 12–12 | −1.41u | −5.9% |
| Completions | 18 | 11–7 | +2.53u | +14.1% |
| Passing TDs | 18 | 6–12 | −5.50u | −30.6% |
| Passing yards | 18 | 10–8 | +0.91u | +5.1% |
| Pass + rush yards | 17 | 7–10 | −3.83u | −22.5% |
| Pass attempts | 15 | 7–8 | −1.80u | −12.0% |
| Anytime TD | 2 | 0–2 | −2.00u | −100.0% |
| Thu 8:15 PM slate · top 52–3 · −1.26u | Odds | Result | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Cook Under 17.5 rush attempts | -103 | loss | −1.00u |
| 2 | Khalil Shakir Over 17.5 longest reception | -115 | loss | −1.00u |
| 3 | Josh Allen Over 13.5 longest rush | -120 | win | +0.83u |
| 4 | Jahmyr Gibbs Under 87.5 rushing yards | -110 | win | +0.91u |
| 5 | Jared Goff Over 0.5 interceptions | -108 | loss | −1.00u |
| Sun 1:00 PM – 4:25 PM slate · top 6530–32 · −5.70u | Odds | Result | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahan Dotson Over 12.5 longest reception | -116 | loss | −1.00u |
| 2 | Chase Brown Over 9.5 longest reception | -110 | loss | −1.00u |
| 3 | Cade Otton Over 29.5 receiving yards | -110 | win | +0.91u |
| 4 | Matthew Golden Under 4.5 receptions | -164 | win | +0.61u |
| 5 | Jordan Addison Under 3.5 receptions | -135 | win | +0.74u |
| 6 | Alvin Kamara Over 5.5 longest rush | -106 | win | +0.94u |
| 7 | Tony Pollard Over 7.5 longest reception | -103 | loss | −1.00u |
| 8 | Drake Maye Over 12.5 longest rush | -131 | win | +0.76u |
| 9 | Kyle Pitts Over 32.5 receiving yards | -109 | loss | −1.00u |
| 10 | Woody Marks Over 30.5 rushing yards | -108 | loss | −1.00u |
| 11 | Bucky Irving Under 15.5 rush attempts | -124 | loss | −1.00u |
| 12 | Breece Hall Over 14.5 longest rush | -105 | loss | −1.00u |
| 13 | Cole Kmet Over 9.5 longest reception | -113 | loss | −1.00u |
| 14 | Lamar Jackson Under 7.5 rush attempts | +103 | win | +1.03u |
| 15 | Jalen Hurts Under 7.5 rush attempts | -122 | win | +0.82u |
| 16 | Rhamondre Stevenson Over 12.5 longest rush | -127 | win | +0.79u |
| 17 | Bryce Young Over 0.5 interceptions | -111 | loss | −1.00u |
| 18 | C.J. Stroud Over 0.5 interceptions | -119 | loss | −1.00u |
| 19 | Deshaun Watson Over 31.5 longest completion | -118 | win | +0.85u |
| 20 | Mason Taylor Over 9.5 longest reception | -123 | void | +0.00u |
| 21 | Carson Wentz Over 0.5 interceptions | -135 | loss | −1.00u |
| 22 | Derrick Henry Over 19.5 longest rush | -113 | loss | −1.00u |
| 23 | Saquon Barkley Over 7.5 longest reception | -118 | win | +0.85u |
| 24 | Rico Dowdle Over 8.5 longest reception | -116 | win | +0.86u |
| 25 | Chuba Hubbard Over 8.5 longest reception | -120 | loss | −1.00u |
| 26 | Dalton Schultz Under 45.5 receiving yards | -113 | loss | −1.00u |
| 27 | Quinshon Judkins Under 13.5 rush attempts | -107 | win | +0.93u |
| 28 | Geno Smith Over 31.5 longest completion | -106 | win | +0.94u |
| 29 | D'Andre Swift Over 15.5 longest rush | -113 | loss | −1.00u |
| 30 | Rashod Bateman Under 45.5 receiving yards | -114 | loss | −1.00u |
| 31 | Cam Ward Over 32.5 longest completion | -108 | win | +0.93u |
| 32 | Aaron Rodgers Over 0.5 interceptions | +103 | win | +1.03u |
| 33 | Cooper Rush Over 30.5 longest completion | -121 | loss | −1.00u |
| 34 | Tee Higgins Over 22.5 longest reception | -104 | win | +0.96u |
| 35 | Baker Mayfield Over 18.5 completions | -120 | win | +0.83u |
| 36 | Jordan Love Over 6.5 longest rush | -104 | loss | −1.00u |
| 37 | Justin Jefferson Under 6.5 receptions | -119 | win | +0.84u |
| 38 | Tyler Shough Over 0.5 interceptions | -120 | loss | −1.00u |
| 39 | Wan'Dale Robinson Over 15.5 longest reception | -109 | loss | −1.00u |
| 40 | Hunter Henry Under 38.5 receiving yards | -109 | loss | −1.00u |
| 41 | Jaylen Waddle Under 4.5 receptions | -131 | loss | −1.00u |
| 42 | Michael Mayer Under 5.5 receptions | -136 | win | +0.74u |
| 43 | Adam Trautman Over 8.5 longest reception | -118 | void | +0.00u |
| 44 | Kirk Cousins Over 31.5 longest completion | -114 | win | +0.88u |
| 45 | Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 interceptions | -123 | win | +0.81u |
| 46 | Ashton Jeanty Over 11.5 longest reception | -122 | loss | −1.00u |
| 47 | Bo Nix Over 34.5 longest completion | -110 | win | +0.91u |
| 48 | Quentin Johnston Under 51.5 receiving yards | -112 | win | +0.89u |
| 49 | Brenton Strange Over 15.5 longest reception | -108 | loss | −1.00u |
| 50 | Justin Herbert Over 0.5 interceptions | +140 | win | +1.40u |
| 51 | Malik Willis Over 0.5 passing tds | -151 | win | +0.66u |
| 52 | Michael Wilson Over 16.5 longest reception | -122 | loss | −1.00u |
| 53 | Jake Ferguson Under 3.5 receptions | -139 | loss | −1.00u |
| 54 | Christian McCaffrey Over 15.5 longest rush | -123 | loss | −1.00u |
| 55 | Drew Lock Under 29.5 pass attempts | -114 | win | +0.88u |
| 56 | Jayden Daniels Over 33.5 longest completion | -117 | loss | −1.00u |
| 57 | De'Von Achane Over 13.5 longest rush | -123 | win | +0.81u |
| 58 | Jacoby Brissett Over 30.5 longest completion | -111 | loss | −1.00u |
| 59 | Javonte Williams Over 8.5 longest reception | -119 | loss | −1.00u |
| 60 | George Kittle Over 18.5 longest reception | -106 | win | +0.94u |
| 61 | Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 17.5 longest reception | -112 | loss | −1.00u |
| 62 | John Bates Over 9.5 longest reception | -113 | void | +0.00u |
| 63 | Brock Purdy Over 37.5 longest completion | -109 | win | +0.92u |
| 64 | Rashid Shaheed Over 15.5 longest reception | -120 | win | +0.83u |
| 65 | Dak Prescott Over 0.5 interceptions | -107 | loss | −1.00u |
| Sun 8:20 PM slate · top 52–3 · −1.21u | Odds | Result | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Downs Under 4.5 receptions | -146 | loss | −1.00u |
| 2 | Jonathan Taylor Under 19.5 rush attempts | -127 | loss | −1.00u |
| 3 | Daniel Jones Over 30.5 longest completion | -113 | win | +0.88u |
| 4 | Noah Gray Over 8.5 longest reception | -107 | loss | −1.00u |
| 5 | Kenneth Walker III Over 17.5 longest rush | -110 | win | +0.91u |
| Mon 8:15 PM slate · top 52–3 · −1.20u | Odds | Result | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Terrance Ferguson Under 35.5 receiving yards | -115 | loss | −1.00u |
| 2 | Isaiah Likely Under 4.5 receptions | -141 | loss | −1.00u |
| 3 | Kyren Williams Over 9.5 longest reception | -120 | win | +0.83u |
| 4 | Jaxson Dart Over 34.5 longest completion | -116 | loss | −1.00u |
| 5 | Cam Skattebo Over 8.5 longest reception | -103 | win | +0.97u |
By market
| Market | Graded | MAE | Form MAE | MAE, priced | Right side | Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anytime TD | 330 | 0.25 | 0.26 | 0.25/317 | – | +0.01 |
| Receptions | 298 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.68/170 | 52%89/170 | -0.01 |
| Receiving yards | 298 | 17.44 | 18.09 | 22.75/172 | 45%78/172 | +0.65 |
| Rush + rec yards | 298 | 21.12 | 22.40 | 24.56/45 | 47%21/45 | +1.28 |
| First TD scorer | 296 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.09/284 | – | +0.02 |
| Longest reception | 219 | 9.10 | 10.01 | 9.43/135 | 46%62/135 | +0.91 |
| Longest rush | 120 | 6.19 | 6.72 | 7.53/56 | 39%22/56 | +0.54 |
| Rush attempts | 120 | 2.98 | 3.18 | 3.50/56 | 50%28/56 | +0.20 |
| Rushing yards | 120 | 17.59 | 18.83 | 18.90/89 | 45%40/89 | +1.24 |
| Completions | 32 | 4.64 | 5.21 | 4.64/32 | 56%18/32 | +0.56 |
| Interceptions | 32 | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.65/32 | 44%14/32 | -0.03 |
| Longest completion | 32 | 13.22 | 13.93 | 13.22/32 | 50%16/32 | +0.71 |
| Pass attempts | 32 | 6.95 | 7.69 | 6.95/32 | 50%16/32 | +0.74 |
| Pass + rush yards | 32 | 63.15 | 74.25 | 65.86/26 | 50%13/26 | +11.10 |
| Passing TDs | 32 | 1.03 | 1.02 | 1.03/32 | 59%19/32 | -0.01 |
| Passing yards | 32 | 61.22 | 71.71 | 61.22/32 | 47%15/32 | +10.49 |
Furthest from the mark
Where the published number was most wrong. Worth reading for a pattern — one market, one team, one kind of player — rather than as a list of individual failures.
| Player | Market | Projected | Actual | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Jaxson DartQB | Pass + rush yards | 274.4 | 20.0 | 254.4 |
| Jaxson DartQB | Passing yards | 238.8 | 20.0 | 218.8 |
 Davante AdamsWR | Receiving yards | 48.3 | 195.0 | 146.7 |
| Davante AdamsWR | Rush + rec yards | 48.6 | 195.0 | 146.4 |
 Jayden DanielsQB | Passing yards | 241.5 | 96.0 | 145.5 |
 Jacoby BrissettQB | Pass + rush yards | 243.9 | 102.0 | 141.9 |
| Jacoby BrissettQB | Passing yards | 229.3 | 95.0 | 134.3 |
 Patrick MahomesQB | Passing yards | 252.1 | 382.0 | 129.9 |
 Caleb WilliamsQB | Passing yards | 267.3 | 138.0 | 129.3 |
| Caleb WilliamsQB | Pass + rush yards | 301.1 | 180.0 | 121.1 |
| Patrick MahomesQB | Pass + rush yards | 279.5 | 399.0 | 119.5 |
| Jayden DanielsQB | Pass + rush yards | 278.4 | 165.0 | 113.4 |
 Carson WentzQB | Pass + rush yards | 260.1 | 149.0 | 111.1 |
 Cooper RushQB | Passing yards | 191.9 | 86.0 | 105.9 |
 C.J. StroudQB | Pass + rush yards | 276.7 | 382.0 | 105.3 |